From a technical point of view, the formation of an ascending channel supports traders who are bullish because it shows that there is a strong short-term rise. Also, on the daily chart, positive indicators show that any drop during the day is likely to be bought into and stay limited near $3,345—that is, the lower edge of the trend channel. A strong drop below the latter would ruin any short-term hopes for the better and leave the Gold price open to continuing this week’s drop from a high reached almost two months ago.
On the other hand, the $3,400 mark now looks like it will be a strong immediate block. If it is broken, the XAU/USD pair could rise to the $3,434–3,435 area. If people keep buying, the price of gold should rise above the $3,451-3,452 area, which was a nearly two-month high hit on Monday. This would allow the price of gold to challenge the all-time high, which is around the $3,500 psychological mark. The handle in question lines up with the barrier in the rising channel. If this barrier is broken, it will be seen as a new signal for bulls.
Overview of the basics
A number of things help keep the gold from going down too far.The atmosphere of global risk is still low since trade issues are still up in the air and tensions in the Middle East could get worse. People think this will help keep the price of gold stable. Bearish traders should be careful before getting ready for a bigger loss from Monday’s high, which was the start of a pullback from a high that had been in place for about two months. This is because there hasn’t been any big economic news from the US that could change the market.
People who buy safe assets over and over again help keep the price of gold up.
On Wednesday afternoon, US President Donald Trump convened in the Situation Room to discuss about ways to end the situation between Israel and Iran. There are reports in the news that Trump has approved an attack on Iran, but he wants to make sure that it is actually required and won’t start a long conflict in the Middle East.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned locals in the Iranian cities of Arak and Khondab to leave their houses for their own protection since they are working in the area against Iranian military facilities. From a technical point of view, the formation of an ascending channel helps traders who are bullish since it shows that prices are going up quickly. Also, positive signs on the daily chart suggest that any dip during the day will probably be bought into and stay close to $3,345, which is the lower edge of the trend channel. If the price drops too much below there, it will spoil any short-term aspirations for the better and leave the Gold price exposed to continuing this week’s collapse from a peak that was hit about two months ago.
The $3,400 level, on the other hand, suddenly appears like it will be a solid barrier right away. If it breaks, the XAU/USD pair could go up to the $3,434–3,435 level. If consumers keep buying, the price of gold should go up above the $3,451–3,452 range, which was a high that lasted almost two months and was reached on Monday. This would let the price of gold try to break the all-time high, which is around $3,500 in people’s minds. The handle in question is in line with the barrier in the ascending channel. If this barrier breaks, it will be a new sign for bulls.
Trump also suggested earlier this week that the pharmaceutical business would soon have to pay taxes. This makes the markets less sure about the July 9 deadline for additional tariffs between the two countries. It also supports the price of gold as a safe haven, although buying US dollars after the deadline puts any genuine gains in check.
Interest rates were expected to be kept unchanged by the Federal Reserve, as most people expected. The prospect of price increases due to Trump’s tariffs was a source of concern for them. The “dot plot” revealed that the committee anticipated two rate decreases by year’s end 2025. In contrast, they anticipated a mere 25 basis point decline in rates for 2026 and 2027.
This year, seven out of the nineteen authorities voiced their opposition to rate cuts, up from four in March. Reason being, inflation could remain elevated and end the year at 3%. Because of this, the price of gold—which does not pay interest—does not rise very much, and the US dollar continues to rise after reaching a three-year low this week.
Because Thursday is Juneteenth National Independence Day, US banks will be closed. This means there will be less liquidity and greater instability that isn’t regular. There aren’t any big US economic reports coming out soon, so the XAU/USD pair is solely dependant on how the price of the USD fluctuates and how the market as a whole feels about risk.The conflict between Israel and Iran is now in its seventh day.People who buy things are scared because this makes a full-scale war in the Middle East more possible.
Ahead of the week, Trump also said that the pharmaceutical business would soon have to pay taxes. This makes the markets less sure before July 9, which is the last day that tariffs between the two countries can not go up. Gold prices also go up as a safe haven, but if you buy US dollars after the deadline, you won’t really see any gains.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same because they were afraid that the tariffs put in place by Trump would cause prices to rise for consumers, which is what most people thought would happen. The “dot plot” showed that the committee thought rates would go down twice by the end of 2025. However, officials only thought rates would go down by 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027.
Also, seven of the 19 officials said they didn’t want any rate cuts this year, up from four in March.
The US will have no banks open on Thursday because it is Juneteenth National Independence Day. This means there will be less money available and more unstable conditions that come and go. So the XAU/USD pair depends only on how the USD price changes and how the market as a whole feels about risk. There aren’t any big US economic data coming out soon. The inflation rate could stay strong and hit 3% by the end of the year. Because of this, the USD is getting stronger after hitting a three-year low this week, and the yellow metal that doesn’t give can’t go up as much.
Business Consultant | Web designer & Developer | Social media Manager | SEO | Passionate Learner, I am deeply passionate about learning and continuously improving my skills.
My interests are diverse, ranging from music and singing to computers and programming languages, digital art, AI
